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Forget enjoying a pumpkin spice latte if you live in the eastern half of the U.S. Cold brew weather is coming back to the region to start November, including record warmth in Florida to kick off the week.
A strong ridge of high pressure is building in eastern Canada and will effectively block colder air from coming into the region.
That will allow near-record warmth to bake most locations east of the Mississippi with temperatures more like September than November. Highs will be 10-15°F above normal from Chicago to New York, reaching into the 70s this week. The warmest location compared to normal goes to Iowa on Monday. Temperatures are also in the 70s there and in some locations, that’s more than 20°F above normal.
Locations to the south will be even warmer, including Florida. Tallahassee has already set a record on Sunday with the mercury cracking 88°F. It’s headed that way again on Monday and other locations across the state could also see records.
The reason for the widespread eastern warmth? You may be tempted to blame El Niño. Don’t. In fact, the odds usually increase for cooler temperatures in the South during El Niño while the Midwest doesn’t see strong El Niño impacts one way or the other.
Instead, other atmospheric factors are at play. That includes the Arctic Oscillation, a pattern of winds over the northerly reaches of the globe, which is positive. When the Arctic Oscillation is positive, it tends to keep cold air away from the eastern U.S.
Average fall temperatures are rising across the U.S. by 0.43°F per decade since 1970. The Upper Midwest and Northeast are among the fastest warming regions in the U.S. for fall. Average temperatures have risen there by more than 3°F over that period. [Check temperatures in your city, state or region]
The November temperature pattern is flipping the warm West-cool East script of the past few years. For at least the start of the month, the western U.S. is looking cool and stormy with rain and snow battering parts of California and winter weather watches and warnings in Nevada, Montana, Idaho and Colorado to start the week.
Parts of the interior West are likely to stay cool for most of November, but coastal warmth is likely to return so you can sip a cold brew on both coasts with reckless abandon.
Sean Sublette contributed reporting to this article.